Global Solar Radiation Estimation and Climatic Variability Analysis Using Extreme Learning Machine Based Predictive Model

Document identifier: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-77489
Access full text here:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2965303
Keyword: Engineering and Technology, Civil Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Teknik och teknologier, Samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Geoteknik, Energy feasibility studies, Extreme learning machine, Solar energy estimation, Multivariate, Soil Mechanics
Publication year: 2020
Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
SDG 3 Good health and wellbeing
The SDG label(s) above have been assigned by OSDG.ai

Abstract:

Sustainable utilization of the freely available solar radiation as renewable energy source requires accurate predictive models to quantitatively evaluate future energy potentials. In this research, an evaluation of the preciseness of extreme learning machine (ELM) model as a fast and efficient framework for estimating global incident solar radiation (G) is undertaken. Daily meteorological datasets suitable for G estimation belongs to the northern parts of the Cheliff Basin in Northwest Algeria, is used to construct the estimation model. Cross-correlation functions are applied between the inputs and the target variable (i.e., G) where several climatological information’s are used as the predictors for surface level G estimation. The most significant model inputs are determined in accordance with highest cross-correlations considering the covariance of the predictors with the G dataset. Subsequently, seven ELM models with unique neuronal architectures in terms of their input-hidden-output neurons are developed with appropriate input combinations. The prescribed ELM model’s estimation performance over the testing phase is evaluated against multiple linear regressions (MLR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and several well-established literature studies. This is done in accordance with several statistical score metrics. In quantitative terms, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are dramatically lower for the optimal ELM model with RMSE and MAE = 3.28 and 2.32 Wm −2 compared to 4.24 and 3.24 Wm −2 (MLR) and 8.33 and 5.37 Wm −2 (ARIMA).

Authors

Tao Hai

Computer Science Department, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji, China
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Ahmad Sharafati

Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
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Achite Mohammed

Faculty of Nature and Life Sciences, Laboratory of Water and Environment, University Hassiba Benbouali Chlef, Hay Es-Salem Chlef, Algeria
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Sinan Q. Salih

Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
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Ravinesh C. Deo

School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, Institute of Life Sciences and Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield, QLD, Australia
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Nadhir Al-Ansari

Luleå tekniska universitet; Geoteknologi
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Zaher Mundher Yaseen

Sustainable Developments in Civil Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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