Precipitation projection using a CMIP5 GCM ensemble model

a regional investigation of Syria

Document identifier: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76647
Access full text here:10.1080/19942060.2019.1683076
Keyword: Engineering and Technology, Civil Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Teknik och teknologier, Samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Geoteknik, Precipitation projection, General circulation model, Random forest, Symmetrical uncertainty, Syria, Soil Mechanics
Publication year: 2020
Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
SDG 13 Climate action
The SDG label(s) above have been assigned by OSDG.ai

Abstract:

The possible changes in precipitation of Syrian due to climate change are projected in this study. The symmetrical uncertainty (SU) and multi-criteria decision-analysis (MCDA) methods are used to identify the best general circulation models (GCMs) for precipitation projections. The effectiveness of four bias correction methods, linear scaling (LS), power transformation (PT), general quantile mapping (GEQM), and gamma quantile mapping (GAQM) is assessed in downscaling GCM simulated precipitation. A random forest (RF) model is performed to generate the multi model ensemble (MME) of precipitation projections for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The results showed that the best suited GCMs for climate projection of Syria are HadGEM2-AO, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, NorESM1-M, and CESM1-CAM5. The LS demonstrated the highest capability for precipitation downscaling. Annual changes in precipitation is projected to decrease by −30 to −85.2% for RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, while by < 0.0 to −30% for RCP 2.6. The precipitation is projected to decrease in the entire country for RCP 6.0, while increase in some parts for other RCPs during wet season. The dry season of precipitation is simulated to decrease by −12 to −93%, which indicated a drier climate for the country in the future.

Authors

Rajab Homsi

Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia
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Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, Dutse,
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Shamsuddin Shahid

Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia
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Tarmizi Ismail

Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia
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Sobri Bin Harun

Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia
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Nadhir Al-Ansari

Luleå tekniska universitet; Geoteknologi
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Kwok-Wing Chau

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Peoples People’s Republic of China
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Zaher Yaseen

Sustainable Developments in Civil Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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