Reserve Fleet Indexed To Exogenous Cost Variables

Document identifier:
Access full text here:10.3846/transport.2019.11079
Keyword: Engineering and Technology, Civil Engineering, Other Civil Engineering, Teknik och teknologier, Samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Annan samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Life cycle cost (LCC), Reserve fleet, Maintenance, Econometric models, Economic life, Lifespan, Drift och underhållsteknik, Operation and Maintenance
Publication year: 2019
Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
SDG 10 Reduced inequalitiesSDG 8 Decent work and economic growth
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Identifying the optimal time to replace a passenger bus in a buses fleet has implications on the size of the reserve fleet. Such calculations rest on endogenous and exogenous economic variables: the former include operating and maintenance costs and bus depreciation; the latter include market imponderables such as the inflation and real discount rates, as well as energy costs, particularly fuel. The authors have created models for the withdrawal/replacement of buses using endogenous economic variables. The models include standard econometric models reflecting the influence of maintenance policies, especially Condition Monitoring (CM) or predictive maintenance, and the size of the reserve fleet. The paper deals with exogenous economic variables, specifically the influence of the cost of money, the inflation and real discount rates rate and the cost of fuel. Both variables fluctuate over time. The paper proposes analytical models for determining the influence of those variables on the withdrawal time and the size of the reserve fleet. It then comprehensively summarizes the variables in a global model, showing its relevance to the dimensioning of the reserve fleet and the withdrawal time.


Hugo David Nogueira Raposo

Centre for Mechanical Engineering, University of Coimbra, Portugal
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José Manuel Torres Farinha

Centre for Mechanical Engineering, University of Coimbra, Portugal
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Luís Andrade Ferreira

Dept of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty Engineering University Porto, Portugal
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Diego Galar

Luleå tekniska universitet; Drift, underhåll och akustik
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