The Role of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in a Stochastic Hosting Capacity Approach for Solar PV
Document identifier: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76249
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10.1109/ISGTEurope.2019.8905523Keyword: Engineering and Technology,
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering,
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering,
Teknik och teknologier,
Elektroteknik och elektronik,
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik,
Aleatory uncertainty,
Epistemic uncertainty,
Photovoltaic,
Stochastic modelling,
Electric Power Engineering,
ElkraftteknikPublication year: 2019Abstract: This paper introduces the terms aleatory and epistemic uncertainties for use in a stochastic hosting capacity method. The role these uncertainties play in the hosting capacity determination is illustrated. It is shown that distinction between aleatory (statistical) and epistemic (systematic) uncertainties is helpful to characterize the probability distributions correctly. For epistemic uncertainties, it is often challenging to obtain information on the probability distribution function. For aleatory uncertainties, a method for characterizing the probability distribution is presented. Aleatory uncertainties’ data measurements are used to obtain a distribution best-fit. The background voltage measurement for a customer in a low-voltage distribution network is used to illustrate the method. Values were obtained for the distribution functions of the three-phase voltages. The used distribution functions are found to influence the resulting hosting capacity. This entails that there is need for measurements and data collection. A research challenge remaining concerns the stochastic model of epistemic uncertainty.
Authors
Enock Mulenga
Luleå tekniska universitet; Energivetenskap
Other publications
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Math H. J. Bollen
Luleå tekniska universitet; Energivetenskap
Other publications
>>
Nicholas Etherden
Research and Development (R & D), Vattenfall AB Stockholm, Sweden
Other publications
>>
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identifier: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76249
datestamp: 2021-04-19T12:54:19Z
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recordCreationDate: 2019-10-04
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http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76249
10.1109/ISGTEurope.2019.8905523
2-s2.0-85075877552
titleInfo:
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lang: eng
title: The Role of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in a Stochastic Hosting Capacity Approach for Solar PV
abstract: This paper introduces the terms aleatory and epistemic uncertainties for use in a stochastic hosting capacity method. The role these uncertainties play in the hosting capacity determination is illustrated. It is shown that distinction between aleatory (statistical) and epistemic (systematic) uncertainties is helpful to characterize the probability distributions correctly. For epistemic uncertainties it is often challenging to obtain information on the probability distribution function. For aleatory uncertainties a method for characterizing the probability distribution is presented. Aleatory uncertainties’ data measurements are used to obtain a distribution best-fit. The background voltage measurement for a customer in a low-voltage distribution network is used to illustrate the method. Values were obtained for the distribution functions of the three-phase voltages. The used distribution functions are found to influence the resulting hosting capacity. This entails that there is need for measurements and data collection. A research challenge remaining concerns the stochastic model of epistemic uncertainty.
subject:
@attributes:
lang: eng
authority: uka.se
topic:
Engineering and Technology
Electrical Engineering Electronic Engineering Information Engineering
Other Electrical Engineering Electronic Engineering Information Engineering
@attributes:
lang: swe
authority: uka.se
topic:
Teknik och teknologier
Elektroteknik och elektronik
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik
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lang: eng
topic: Aleatory uncertainty
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lang: eng
topic: epistemic uncertainty
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lang: eng
topic: photovoltaic
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lang: eng
topic: stochastic modelling
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lang: eng
authority: ltu
topic: Electric Power Engineering
genre: Research subject
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lang: swe
authority: ltu
topic: Elkraftteknik
genre: Research subject
language:
languageTerm: eng
genre:
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Published
3
ISBN för värdpublikation: 978-1-5386-8218-0 978-1-5386-8219-7
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Mulenga
Enock
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Luleå tekniska universitet
Energivetenskap
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Math H. J.
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Luleå tekniska universitet
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genre: project
titleInfo:
title: Hosting Capacity for Solar Power in Northern Sweden
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titleInfo:
title: Proceedings of 2019 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT-Europe)
@attributes:
type: series
titleInfo:
title: IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT Europe)
originInfo:
dateIssued: 2019
publisher: IEEE
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form: print
typeOfResource: text